NationalHSFootball.com
– Dallas Jackson, NationalHSFootball.com
The high school football season is now complete and Miami (Fla.) Booker T. Washington has climbed the mountain and planted its flag as national champions.
The Tornadoes were given the HSFB100 crown as well as six out of seven title in the Media Compilation Top 25.
Programs like Allen (Texas) High and Bellflower (Cali.) St. John Bosco made the final rankings extremely tight and offered the argument that the top teams in 2013 may have been the best of the last five years.
In the spirit of reflection that comes with the end of every year, NationalHSFootball.com will look back at some of the things that were correctly evaluated and some that were major errors.
One interesting trend for 2013 was that none of our errors came west of the Mississippi river but almost entirely in the Midlands or Atlantic East.
Here is look back at teams that were overrated in the offseason analysis:
| TEAM | CITY | STATE | PRESEASON | RECORD |
| Bergen Catholic | Oradell | NJ | No. 96 | 2-7 |
| WHAT WE THOUGHT GOING IN: This is a team that doesn’t return many players, but the depth has grown and the expectations have not dipped. Bergen opens with defending national champion River Ridge (La.) John Curtis, defending Utah state champion Sandy (Utah) Jordan and nationally ranked Las Vegas (Nev.) Bishop Gorman and Montvale (N.J.) St. Joseph’s. With a schedule that includes Ramsey (N.J.) Don Bosco, Paramus (N.J.) Catholic, Washington (D.C.) Friendship Collegiate and Jersey City (N.J.) St. Peter’s Prep, a losing record may be inevitable and a winning record would be remarkable.
WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENED: Bergen lost a lot of games and most of them were not surprising. The error in evaluation was giving a program with so many questions marks — as well as so many tough games — the early placement. Of the seven losses on the schedule, six were against teams that finished the season nationally ranked. The Crusaders actually played tough against John Curtis, Bishop Gorman, and Don Bosco. The ranking was wrong but the analysis was fairly correct. |
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| Oviedo | Oviedo | FL | No. 77 | 6-4 |
| WHAT WE THOUGHT GOING IN: Two-year starting running back Jurell Green will be a focal point of the attack. Along with Green, the Lions return senior quarterback Chris Davis. Davis is more of an athlete than a true quarterback, but the UCF pledge threw for more than 1,100 yards and accounted for nearly 600 more on the ground. Oviedo returns a ton of talent and that may be enough. The program moves to Class 8A and will have to battle Bradenton (Fla.) Manatee and Tampa (Fla.) Plant to get to the state title game. The bracket is wide open and this squad has a good of a chance as anyone.
WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENED: Oviedo never got its legs under it. The offense and defense never found a grove. The team had nagging injuries but no more than any other program. There were too many errors and too many mistakes to overcome. The team finished 2-2 in its own district and did not get a chance to make the playoffs. It has to be one of the more disappointing preseason rankings as the schedule was not one that should have ben a 6-4 season with what was returning. |
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| St. Xavier | Cincinnati | OHIO | No. 24 | 5-6 |
| WHAT WE THOUGHT GOING IN: There are few teams who would get serious consideration for a top 25 placement coming off of a five-loss season that ended in a first-round elimination, but St. Xavier is an exception. It is the goal not to allow past results to dictate placement in the preseason rankings, but since its undefeated season in 2007 the program has averaged nearly five losses per year. From the first game against Indianapolis (Ind.) Ben Davis through contests with Brentwood (Tenn.) Academy, Indianapolis (Ind.) Cathedral, Indianapolis (Ind.) Warren Central, Cleveland (Ohio) St. Ignatius and Louisville (Ky.) St. Xavier, as well as its regular games with the other members of the Greater Catholic League, this schedule is a death march before the Division I playoffs start. An undefeated season would set up a national championship celebration with few detractors surfacing.
WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENED: St. Xavier continued to perform as a team that needs to prove its mettle and not be given the preseason pass. The season was up-and-down as the Bombers were never predictable as to which team would show up offensively. It managed to stay within the HSFB100 ranking even at 4-3 — there was argument to keep the team in when it was 5-4 entering November. Losses to Louisville St. Xavier and Cincinnati Moeller to end the year silenced any talk about that placement but it may have also pushed St. Xavier down the list of programs that get benefit of the doubt arguments going forward. |
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| Trinity | Louisville | KY | No. 45 | 6-6 |
| WHAT WE THOUGHT GOING IN: Trinity is almost assuredly going to take a step back — which is more of a testament to how good it has been, not a slight to this year’s team — so the question is how much does it regress? The Shamrocks will open the season as an underdog against Nashville (Tenn.) Ensworth and then play toss-up games against Camel (Ind.) and Indianapolis (Ind.) Lawrence Central before taking on nationally ranked Cincinnati (Ohio) Colerain. The season doesn’t let up with Indianapolis (Ind.) Cathedral, Louisville (Ky.) St. Xavier, and Cincinnati (Ohio) Moeller also on the schedule. An undefeated run could push this squad towards the top 10 but most likely this will be a two-loss team.
WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENED: There were two games here that Trinity would like to have back and the season would feel a lot different. The opening week of the season it gave up a final minute touchdown to fall to Ensworth and then two weeks later it could not get its offense going and last to an inferior Lawrence Central squad. Its other losses were to Colerain and Moeller — which were both favored entering play — and then two games to Louisville (Kent.) Male. The Males games were somewhat surprising but with what the Shamrocks lost it was time for a step backward. The preseason ranking was a little high but it was modified quickly as the team slid out of the rankings before the calendar hit September. |
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| Whitmer | Toledo | OHIO | No. 70 | 6-5 |
| WHAT WE THOUGHT GOING IN: The program has been the best in Toledo for the last few years and it has a big roster so there will be internal options, but they likely will not be name-brand players. There are a lot of questions with this team. The Toledo area is pretty awful for football, so there are plenty of games to find comfort and confidence prior to the playoffs. What will be interesting is how the team fares in out-of-state games against Orchard Lake (Mich.) St. Mary Prep and Novi (Mich.) Catholic Central. It may also have a test with Toledo (Ohio) Central Catholic, which went 14-1 and won the Division II state title in 2012.
WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENED: Whitmer was unable to replace its main playmakers and the offense scuffled. The team was held under 17 points in all five losses and against quality competition did not have an answer. It lost all three games that were considered toss-ups entering the season and added a surprise defeat at the hands of Toledo (Ohio) St. Francis de Sales. It was crushed in the first round of the playoffs to Hudson (Ohio) Ohio but was nationally irrelevant long before that defeat occurred. |
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